{"id":8717354,"date":"2023-01-16T07:24:27","date_gmt":"2023-01-16T15:24:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/?p=8717354&#038;preview=true&#038;preview_id=8717354"},"modified":"2023-01-16T10:46:00","modified_gmt":"2023-01-16T18:46:00","slug":"where-are-californias-most-volatile-home-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/2023\/01\/16\/where-are-californias-most-volatile-home-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Where are California\u2019s most-volatile home prices?"},"content":{"rendered":"<iframe src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/12350168\/embed\" width=\"100%\" height=\"550px\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe\" allowtransparency=\"1\" id=\"63c7512546576\" allowfullscreen=\"yes\" allow=\"geolocation\" ><\/iframe>\n\n<p><em>\u201cSurvey says\u201d looks at various rankings and scorecards judging geographic locations while noting these grades are best seen as a mix of artful interpretation and data.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Buzz: <\/strong>The Inland Empire is home to California\u2019s wildest home-price swings.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Source: <\/strong> My trusty spreadsheet tallied annual changes in home values in seven big California markets, as calculated by <a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/3Quc2QU\">Federal Housing Finance Agency indexes dating to 1978<\/a>. Rankings tracked four factors: the gap between best and worst years; the share of down years; a geeky measure of price-swing variations called \u201cstandard deviation;\u201d and the 44-year average price gain. The final grade was an average ranking of these four yardsticks.<\/p>\n<h4>Topline<\/h4>\n<p>As California housing seems headed toward a price correction in 2023, it\u2019s time to see what history tells us where large gyrations in home values happen the most frequently in the state.<\/p>\n<p>The housing market of Riverside and San Bernardino counties took the top spot because it was No. 1 in all four volatility yardsticks. The Inland Empire\u2019s housing market has an up-and-down history due the region\u2019s fast-growth and erratic economic history.<\/p>\n<p>Next came the Sacramento metro area, followed by Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties, then the San Jose and San Francisco metro areas.<\/p>\n<h4>Details<\/h4>\n<p>Let\u2019s look inside the rankings to see how values within these markets have varied since 1978.<\/p>\n<p><strong>No. 1 Inland Empire:<\/strong> There\u2019s a 57 percentage-point gap between the biggest gain of 29% in 2004 and the largest loss of 28% in 2008. This market suffered down years 30% of the time, with a typical 10.6 percentage-point variation in year-to-year price swings. Local prices have gained an average 5.8% a year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>No. 2 Sacramento:<\/strong> The metro area\u2019s 45-point gap between its biggest gain of 25% in 1978 and the largest loss of 20% in 2008. Down years 25% of the time. A 9.8-point price-swing variation. Average gain of 6% a year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>No. 3 Los Angeles County:<\/strong> A 43-point gap between its biggest gain of 26% in 2005 and largest loss of 17% in 2008. Down years 30% of the time. A 9.5-point price-swing variation. Average gain of 6.3% a year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>No. 4 Orange County:<\/strong> A 44-point gap between biggest gain of 26% in 2004 and the largest loss of 18% in 2008. Down years 25% of the time. A 9.1-point price-swing variation. Average gain of 6.1% a year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>No. 5 San Diego County:<\/strong> A 42-point gap between biggest gain of 25% 2004) and the largest loss of 17% (2008). Down years 27% of the time. A 8.8-point price-swing variation. Average gain of 6.2% a year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>No. 6 San Jose:<\/strong> The metro area\u2019s 43-point gap between biggest gain of 30% (1989) and largest loss of 12% (2009). Down years 25% of the time. A 9-point price-swing variation. Average gain of 6.9% a year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>No. 7 San Francisco:<\/strong> The metro area\u2019s 32-point gap between biggest gain of 23% (2000) and largest loss of 9% (2008). Down years 27% of the time. A 8.8% price-swing variation. Average gain of 6.9% a year.<\/p>\n<h4>Caveat<\/h4>\n<p>Let\u2019s remember, California\u2019s overall housing market has historically gone through wilder peaks and valleys than the rest of the U.S. This means most national home-price forecasts have little value to a California property watcher.<aside class=\"related left\"><h2 class=\"widget-title\" data-curated-ids=\"\" data-relation-type=\"automatic-primary-tag\">Related Articles<\/h2><ul><li>\n\n<div class=\"entry-section\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/\">Real Estate | <\/a><\/div>\t\t\t<a class=\"article-title\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/2023\/01\/17\/google-san-jose-downtown-village-tech-history-patty-inn-iron-work\/\" title=\"Google salvages and adapts older parts of downtown San Jose village\">\n\t\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"dfm-title premium\">\n\t\t\tGoogle transit village historic building work pushes ahead in downtown San Jose\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\n<\/li><li>\n\n<div class=\"entry-section\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/\">Real Estate | <\/a><\/div>\t\t\t<a class=\"article-title\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/2023\/01\/17\/marin-real-estate-median-home-price-dips-to-1-5m\/\" title=\"Marin County median home price dips to $1.5 million\">\n\t\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"dfm-title metered\">\n\t\t\tMarin County median home price dips to $1.5 million\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\n<\/li><li>\n\n<div class=\"entry-section\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/\">Real Estate | <\/a><\/div>\t\t\t<a class=\"article-title\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/2023\/01\/16\/good-samaritan-san-jose-higher-medical-hospital-building-expand-build\/\" title=\"Good Samaritan eyes big hospital bed increase with San Jose expansion\">\n\t\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"dfm-title premium\">\n\t\t\tGood Samaritan eyes big hospital bed increase with San Jose expansion\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\n<\/li><li>\n\n<div class=\"entry-section\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/\">Real Estate | <\/a><\/div>\t\t\t<a class=\"article-title\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/2023\/01\/16\/is-the-bay-area-on-the-verge-of-a-housing-construction-slowdown\/\" title=\"Is the Bay Area on the verge of a housing construction slowdown?\">\n\t\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"dfm-title premium\">\n\t\t\tIs the Bay Area on the verge of a housing construction slowdown?\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\n<\/li><li>\n\n<div class=\"entry-section\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/\">Real Estate | <\/a><\/div>\t\t\t<a class=\"article-title\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/2023\/01\/13\/downtown-san-jose-tower-china-real-estate-develop-sale-home-housing\/\" title=\"Downtown San Jose housing site owned by Chinese real estate firm goes up for sale\">\n\t\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"dfm-title premium\">\n\t\t\tDowntown San Jose housing site owned by Chinese real estate firm goes up for sale\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\n<\/li><\/ul><\/aside><\/p>\n<p>Look at the differences in these volatility measures for the California and U.S. FHFA indexes \u2013 with a stock average (Wilshire 500 index) tossed in for comparative purposes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Best year:<\/strong> Up 24% (2005) for California homes, up 14% (1978) for U.S. homes and up 37% (1983) for stocks.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Worst year:<\/strong> Off 20% (2008) for California homes, off 6% (2009). for U.S. homes and off 22% (2009) for stocks.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Extremes gap:<\/strong> 43 percentage points between best and worst years for California homes, 20 for U.S. homes, and 59 for stocks.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Down years since 1978:<\/strong> 27% for California homes, 11% for U.S. homes, and 18% for stocks.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Price-swing variance:<\/strong> 9.1 percentage points for California homes, 4.3 for U.S. homes, and 13 for stocks.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Average gain since 1978:<\/strong> 6.2% for California homes, 4.7% for U.S. homes, and 10.1% for stocks.<\/p>\n<h4>Bottom line<\/h4>\n<p>Falling home prices in California are not just the result of events surrounding the 2008 global financial meltdown and housing collapse.<\/p>\n<p><aside class=\"related left\"><h2 class=\"widget-title\" data-curated-ids=\"\" data-relation-type=\"automatic-primary-tag\">Related Articles<\/h2><ul><li>\n\n<div class=\"entry-section\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/\">Real Estate | <\/a><\/div>\t\t\t<a class=\"article-title\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/2023\/01\/17\/google-san-jose-downtown-village-tech-history-patty-inn-iron-work\/\" title=\"Google salvages and adapts older parts of downtown San Jose village\">\n\t\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"dfm-title premium\">\n\t\t\tGoogle transit village historic building work pushes ahead in downtown San Jose\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\n<\/li><li>\n\n<div class=\"entry-section\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/\">Real Estate | <\/a><\/div>\t\t\t<a class=\"article-title\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/2023\/01\/17\/marin-real-estate-median-home-price-dips-to-1-5m\/\" title=\"Marin County median home price dips to $1.5 million\">\n\t\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"dfm-title metered\">\n\t\t\tMarin County median home price dips to $1.5 million\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\n<\/li><li>\n\n<div class=\"entry-section\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/\">Real Estate | <\/a><\/div>\t\t\t<a class=\"article-title\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/2023\/01\/16\/good-samaritan-san-jose-higher-medical-hospital-building-expand-build\/\" title=\"Good Samaritan eyes big hospital bed increase with San Jose expansion\">\n\t\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"dfm-title premium\">\n\t\t\tGood Samaritan eyes big hospital bed increase with San Jose expansion\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\n<\/li><li>\n\n<div class=\"entry-section\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/\">Real Estate | <\/a><\/div>\t\t\t<a class=\"article-title\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/2023\/01\/16\/is-the-bay-area-on-the-verge-of-a-housing-construction-slowdown\/\" title=\"Is the Bay Area on the verge of a housing construction slowdown?\">\n\t\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"dfm-title premium\">\n\t\t\tIs the Bay Area on the verge of a housing construction slowdown?\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\n<\/li><li>\n\n<div class=\"entry-section\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/business\/real-estate\/\">Real Estate | <\/a><\/div>\t\t\t<a class=\"article-title\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/2023\/01\/13\/downtown-san-jose-tower-china-real-estate-develop-sale-home-housing\/\" title=\"Downtown San Jose housing site owned by Chinese real estate firm goes up for sale\">\n\t\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"dfm-title premium\">\n\t\t\tDowntown San Jose housing site owned by Chinese real estate firm goes up for sale\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\n<\/li><\/ul><\/aside>Between 1978 and 2006 \u2013 just before the real estate bubble crashed into the Great Recession \u2013 these seven big California housing markets combined had down years 22% of the time. That\u2019s roughly once every five years.<\/p>\n<p>In the decade of recovery from the mid-2000s housing bust, the seven markets have had a total of five down years. So, even before you ponder overvalued homes, high mortgage rates and growing economic uncertainty, California housing seems overdue for a price correction.<\/p>\n<p>And recent gains seem unsustainable, especially since mortgage rates soared in much of 2022.<\/p>\n<p>Peek at the one-year home-price gains for the seven markets through September, the latest FHFA indexes available, and how that gain would rank among all other full-year results back to 1978.<\/p>\n<p>Inland Empire\u2019s 18% increase would be its seventh-best since 1978. Orange County\u2019s 17% would be No. 5; San Diego 17% (No. 6); San Jose 15% (No. 8); Los Angeles County 15% (No. 9); San Francisco 12% (No. 17); Sacramento 10% (No. 16).<\/p>\n<p><em>Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at <a href=\"mailto:jlansner@scng.com\">jlansner@scng.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As housing seems headed toward a price correction in 2023, it&#8217;s time to see what history tells us about where in the state prices have moved the most.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":878,"featured_media":8717355,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"subheadline":"Inland Empire is home to California's wildest home-price 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Flourish\n","name":"california-home-price-swings2x","status":"inherit","uploadedTo":8717354,"date":1673882717000,"modified":1673882717000,"menuOrder":0,"mime":"image\/jpeg","type":"image","subtype":"jpeg","icon":"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","dateFormatted":"January 16, 2023","nonces":{"update":false,"delete":false,"edit":false},"editLink":false,"meta":false,"authorName":"gqlshare","authorLink":"","uploadedToTitle":"Where are California\u2019s most-volatile home prices?","uploadedToLink":null,"filesizeInBytes":175749,"filesizeHumanReadable":"172 KB","context":"","height":1550,"width":1592,"orientation":"landscape","sizes":{"thumbnail":{"height":"150","width":"150","url":"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/California-home-price-swings@2x.jpeg?w=150&h=150&crop=1","orientation":"landscape"},"medium":{"height":292,"width":300,"url":"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/California-home-price-swings@2x.jpeg?w=300","orientation":"landscape"},"large":{"height":997,"width":1024,"url":"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/California-home-price-swings@2x.jpeg?w=1024","orientation":"landscape"},"full":{"url":"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/California-home-price-swings@2x.jpeg","height":1550,"width":1592,"orientation":"landscape"}}}}],"authors":[{"ID":4727755,"display_name":"Jonathan 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