{"id":8715566,"date":"2023-01-13T05:30:17","date_gmt":"2023-01-13T13:30:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/?p=8715566&preview=true&preview_id=8715566"},"modified":"2023-01-13T06:09:21","modified_gmt":"2023-01-13T14:09:21","slug":"skelton-is-newsoms-long-stretch-of-luck-as-governor-running-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eastbaytimes.com\/2023\/01\/13\/skelton-is-newsoms-long-stretch-of-luck-as-governor-running-out\/","title":{"rendered":"Skelton: Is Newsom\u2019s long stretch of luck as governor running out?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gov. Gavin Newsom is arguably the luckiest California governor ever. But some of that luck will run out with the Republican takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives.<\/p>\n

Newsom was immensely lucky that fellow Democrats controlled the federal government the last two years. President Biden and Congress showered California with tens of billions in economic aid, enough for the governor to avoid a budget crisis this winter.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s doubtful the federal largess would have showed up if Biden had lost to then-President Trump in 2020 and if Democrats hadn\u2019t controlled the Senate and House by razor-thin margins.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf it was up to, respectfully, the Republican Party, none of this would have happened. Not one dollar would have come our way,\u201d Newsom told reporters Tuesday, referring to federal funding boosts as he unveiled a $297-billion state budget plan for the next fiscal year.<\/p>\n

In all, Newsom said, California has received $48 billion from two major federal bills: the $700-billion Inflation Reduction Act and the $1.2-trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Much of the money was distributed to local governments and private entities.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe could receive an additional $48 billion,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s luck. But Newsom has been lucky for several reasons since taking office four years ago.<\/p>\n

Both legislative houses have been controlled by supermajorities of Democrats. He can govern without Republican interference. He doesn\u2019t need them for anything.<\/p>\n

Newsom has had no significant political rival in either party. Republicans are too weak. Democrats don\u2019t dare.<\/p>\n

Thanks to voters in 2010, the legislative vote requirement for passing a budget is only a simple majority. Before that, a two-thirds vote was needed, resulting in summer-long deadlocks that tarnished the images of all Sacramento politicians. These days, it\u2019s easy for a governor to get his spending plan passed.<\/p>\n

Newsom also was lucky to govern in good economic times. Until very recently, the state treasury continually overflowed with tax revenue. Unlike predecessors Jerry Brown and Arnold Schwarzenegger, Newsom hasn\u2019t had to gut popular state programs to balance the books, angering political allies.<\/p>\n

Last year, a ridiculous $100-billion surplus was projected for the current budget. But because of the economic downturn, general fund tax revenues are running nearly $30 billion short, resulting in a\u00a0projected deficit\u00a0of $22.5 billion.<\/p>\n

Except for brief fiscal jitters during the 2020 pandemic that turned out to be a false scare, this is the first time Newsom has confronted a real deficit.<\/p>\n

The governor was justified in patting himself on the back and praising the Legislature for socking away nearly $36 billion in various piggy banks \u2014 so-called rainy-day funds \u2014 to be tapped during bad times. But he left them alone. Things could get worse, he explained, and they\u2019d be needed then.<\/p>\n

The governor called for delaying lots of planned programs for a year, but not outright eliminating them. He proposed paying for some public works projects with bond financing rather than cash. He reduced some planned expenditures but offered a \u201ctrigger\u201d mechanism that would restore the funding if tax revenues picked up.<\/p>\n

No slash and burn. Just a gentle touch as you\u2019d expect from a liberal governor. But even with that, he\u2019ll be under pressure from liberal lawmakers and interest groups to restore the cuts when he revises the budget proposal in May.<\/p>\n

Newsom was asked by a reporter whether he thought the House leadership change would affect the state budget. His immediate answer seemed to contradict what he\u2019d said a few minutes earlier about how Republicans wouldn\u2019t have produced federal funding as Democrats did.<\/p>\n

\u201cSpeed bumps,\u201d Newsom replied. \u201cI don\u2019t see their agenda getting any traction whatsoever.\u201d<\/p>\n

He said House GOP legislation would be blocked by Senate Democrats and Biden.<\/p>\n

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy\u2019s \u201cpriorities \u2026 are not the agenda of the American people,\u201d Newsom said. \u201cIt\u2019s just noise.\u201d<\/p>\n

But then he seemed to think again and added, \u201cThey can be a roadblock. \u2026 Momentum will be disrupted.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo, we have to step up our game. \u2026 We have the moral authority to push back, and I can assure you we will do that.\u201d<\/p>\n

And his relationship with fellow California native McCarthy? \u201cTo be determined.\u201d<\/p>\n

Regardless of how far their legislation advances in Congress, however, House Republicans are positioned to block additional funding for California. They\u2019ve never been enthusiastic about climate programs, for example.<\/p>\n

And one thing seems certain: There won\u2019t be any additional federal funding for California\u2019s practically broke bullet train while McCarthy is speaker. He\u2019s one of the pokey project\u2019s most adamant opponents.<\/p>\n

Rare bad luck for Newsom.<\/p>\n

George Skelton is a Los Angeles Times columnist.<\/em><\/p>\n